Towards a Systematic Search for Triggered Seismic Events in the USA

Dynamic triggering of small earthquakes and tectonic tremor by small stress variations associated with passing surface waves from large-magnitude teleseismic earthquakes have been observed in seismically active regions in the western US. Local stress variations as small as 5 10 kPa can suffice to advance slip on local faults. Observations of such triggered events share certain distinct characteristics. With an eye towards an eventual application of machine learning, we began a systematic search for dynamically triggered seismic events in the USA that have these characteristics. Such a systematic survey has the potential to help us to better understand the fundamental process of dynamic triggering and hazards implied by it. Using visual inspection on top of timing and frequency based selection criteria for these seismic phenomena, our search yielded numerous false positives, indicating the challenge posed by moving from ad-hoc observations of dynamic triggering to a systematic search that also includes a catalog of non-triggering, even when sufficient stress variations are supplied. Our search includes a dozen large earthquakes that occurred during the tenure of USArray. One of these earthquakes (11 April 2012 Mw8.6 Sumatra), for example, was observed by USArray-TA stations in the Midwest and other station networks (such as PB and UW), and yielded candidate-triggered events at 413 stations. We kept 79 of these observations after closer visual inspection of the observed events suggested distinct P and S arrivals from a local earthquake, or a tremor modulation with the same period as the surface wave, among other criteria. We confirmed triggered seismic events in 63 stations along the western plate boundary where triggered events have previously been observed. We also newly found triggered tremor sources in eastern Oregon and Yellowstone, and candidate-triggered earthquake sources in New Mexico and Minnesota. Learning whether 14 of remaining candidates are confirmed as triggered events or not will provide constraints on the state of intraplate stress in the USA. Learning what it takes to discriminate between triggered events and false positives will be important for future monitoring practices.