Analysis of Atmospheric Moisture Transport over the Himalaya-Karakoram-Hindukush Region

The high-altitude region of the Himalaya-Karakoram-Hindukush (HKH) ranges is susceptible to natural disasters due to their extreme topographic features and climatic conditions. The region, where large population resides in deep valleys and mountain foothills, is prone to riverine flooding, flash floods, and extreme precipitation events whose frequency is perceived to be increasing, often with attribution to climate change. It is thus imperative to study the causation using modern hydrometeorological products. In this study, we identify regions with documented trends in extreme flooding and precipitation and carry out a statistical analysis of the atmospheric moisture transport at the synoptic scale for these regions using ERA-Interim and NASA MERRA-2 reanalysis products. We focus on the two main sources for the atmospheric moisture in the region: the summer South-East Asian Monsoon and the winter Westerlies, and explore how variations in these systems affect the moisture convergence and divergence over the region. Our findings indicate that the Monsoon precipitation has been intensifying in the western Himalayas over the past decade and a half and that these changes are likely related to moisture advection into the region.