Using Data Assimilation in Real-Time Hydrological Modeling of Groundwater and Stream Flow in Silkeborg, Denmark

Climate adaptation strategies have nowadays been used more and more frequently in European cities, such as low impact development to increase infiltration and thus reduce the risk of urban flooding. An alternative approach to cope with the increased precipitation under the future climate condition is by using real-time management techniques to operate the drainage system. In the present study, we developed a real-time hydrological modeling system which can forecast both surface water and groundwater in the city of Silkeborg, Denmark. The model is based on MIKE SHE code, and operates on 50 × 50 m grid cell with hourly time step. Real-time observation data, i.e. groundwater head data from 35 wells and 4 stream flow gauging stations, are used in a data assimilation (DA) framework in order to correct bias in each calculation cell. The DA framework is based on ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) where uncertainties from forcing data, model parameters as well as observations are taken into consideration. A case study has been carried out where the DA enabled MIKE SHE model was executed in conjunction with the rainfall products from the Danish Meteorological Institute: short term weather forecast coming from HIRLAM model with temporal resolution of 10 minutes and 8 hours lead time, and longer term forecast coming from HARMONIE model with temporal resolution of 1 hour and 48 hour lead time. The results show that DA can visibly increase the model performance for both groundwater head and stream discharge simulations. Even for the short period when observation data are not available (June 2016), the DA based model can still outperform the model without DA. In the forecasting mode, the simulated stream discharge is much more responsive to the increase of rainfall than groundwater as expected. The predicted and observed groundwater head in some areas only varies in the magnitude of a few centimeters, which does not have so much practical meaning in reality, whereas in other areas it could be as high as 1 m depending on the underlying geology.