Consequences of land use cover change and precipitation regimes on water quality in a tropical landscape: the case of São Paulo, Brazil

One of the most pressing challenges faced by modern societies is ensuring a sufficient supply of water considering the ever-growing conflict between environmental conservation and expansion of agricultural and urban frontiers worldwide. Land use cover change have marked effects on natural landscapes, putting key watershed ecosystem services in jeopardy. We investigated the consequences of land use cover change and precipitation regimes on water quality in the state of São Paulo, Brazil, a landscape that underwent major changes in past century. Water quality data collected bi-monthly between 2000 and 2014 from 229 water monitoring stations was analyzed together with 2011 land use cover maps. We focused on six water quality metrics (dissolved oxygen, total nitrogen, total phosphorus, turbidity, total dissolved solids and fecal coliforms) and used generalized linear mixed models to analyze the data. Models were built at two scales, the entire watershed and a 60 meters riparian buffer along the river network. Models accounted for 46-67% of the variance in water quality metrics and, apart from dissolved oxygen, which reflected land cover composition in riparian buffers, all metrics responded to land use at the watershed scale. Highly urbanized areas had low dissolved oxygen and high fecal coliforms, dissolved solids, phosphorus and nitrogen levels in streams. Pasture was associated with increases in turbidity, while sugarcane plantations significantly increased nitrogen concentrations. Watersheds with high forest cover had greater dissolved oxygen and lower turbidity. Silviculture plantations had little impact on water quality. Precipitation decreased dissolved oxygen and was associated with higher levels of turbidity, fecal coliforms and phosphorus. Results indicate that conversion of forest cover to other land uses had negative impacts on water quality in the study area, highlighting the need for landscape restoration to improve watersheds ecosystem services.