Influence of Flow Sequencing Attributed to Climate Change and Climate Variability on the Assessment of Water-dependent Ecosystem Outcomes

Traditional approaches to characterize water-dependent ecosystem outcomes in response to flow have been based on time-averaged hydrological indicators, however there is increasing recognition for the need to characterize ecological processes that are highly dependent on the sequencing of flow conditions (i.e. floods and droughts). This study considers the representation of flow regimes when considering assessment of ecological outcomes, and in particular, the need to account for sequencing and variability of flow. We conducted two case studies - one in the largely unregulated Ovens River catchment and one in the highly regulated Murray River catchment (both located in south-eastern Australia) - to explore the importance of flow sequencing to the condition of a typical long-lived ecological asset in Australia, the River Red Gum forests. In the first, the Ovens River case study, the implications of representing climate change using different downscaling methods (annual scaling, monthly scaling, quantile mapping, and weather generator method) on the sequencing of flows and resulting ecological outcomes were considered. In the second, the Murray River catchment, sequencing within a historic drought period was considered by systematically making modest adjustments on an annual basis to the hydrological records. In both cases, the condition of River Red Gum forests was assessed using an ecological model that incorporates transitions between ecological conditions in response to sequences of required flow components. The results of both studies show the importance of considering how hydrological alterations are represented when assessing ecological outcomes. The Ovens case study showed that there is significant variation in the predicted ecological outcomes when different downscaling techniques are applied. Similarly, the analysis in the Murray case study showed that the drought as it historically occurred provided one of the best possible outcomes for River Red Gum forests when compared to other re-arrangements of flow within the same drought. These results have implications for the way we represent climate change impacts and drought risk assessments where ecological outcomes are a key management objective.