Sensitivity of Support Vector Machine Predictions of Passive Microwave Brightness Temperature Over Snow-covered Terrain in High Mountain Asia

High Mountain Asia (HMA) serves as a water supply source for over 1.3 billion people, primarily in south-east Asia. Most of this water originates as snow (or ice) that melts during the summer months and contributes to the run-off downstream. In spite of its critical role, there is still considerable uncertainty regarding the total amount of snow in HMA and its spatial and temporal variation. In this study, the NASA Land Information Systems (LIS) is used to model the hydrologic cycle over the Indus basin. In addition, the ability of support vector machines (SVM), a machine learning technique, to predict passive microwave brightness temperatures at a specific frequency and polarization as a function of LIS-derived land surface model output is explored in a sensitivity analysis. Multi-frequency, multi-polarization passive microwave brightness temperatures as measured by the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer - Earth Observing System (AMSR-E) over the Indus basin are used as training targets during the SVM training process. Normalized sensitivity coefficients (NSC) are then computed to assess the sensitivity of a well-trained SVM to each LIS-derived state variable. Preliminary results conform with the known first-order physics. For example, input states directly linked to physical temperature like snow temperature, air temperature, and vegetation temperature have positive NSC's whereas input states that increase volume scattering such as snow water equivalent or snow density yield negative NSC's. Air temperature exhibits the largest sensitivity coefficients due to its inherent, high-frequency variability. Adherence of this machine learning algorithm to the first-order physics bodes well for its potential use in LIS as the observation operator within a radiance data assimilation system aimed at improving regional- and continental-scale snow estimates.