How to allocate water resources under climate change in the arid endorheic river basin, Northwest China

Water resource is of fundamental importance to the society and ecosystem in arid endorheic river basins, and water-use conflicts between upstream and downstream are usually significant. Heihe river basin (HRB) is the second largest endorheic river basin in china, which is featured with dry climate, intensively irrigated farmlands in oases and significant surface water-groundwater interaction. The irrigation districts in the middle HRB consume a large portion of the river flow, and the low HRB, mainly Gobi Desert, has an extremely vulnerable ecological environment. The water resources management has significantly altered the hydrological processes in HRB, and is now facing multiple challenges, including decline of groundwater table in the middle HRB, insufficient environmental flow for the lower HRB. Furthermore, future climate change adds substantial uncertainty to the water system. Thus, it is imperative to have a sustainable water resources management in HRB in order to tackle the existing challenges and future uncertainty. Climate projection form a dynamical downscaled climate change scenario shows precipitation will increase at a rate of approximately 3 millimeter per ten years and temperature will increase at a rate of approximately 0.2 centigrade degree per ten years in the following 50 years in the HRB. Based on an integrated ecohydrological model, we evaluated how the climate change and agricultural development would collaboratively impact the water resources and ecological health in the middle and lower HRB, and investigated how the water management should cope with the complex impact.