An Agent-based Modeling of Water-Food Nexus towards Sustainable Management of Urban Water Resources

Growing population, urbanization, and climate change have put tremendous stress on water systems in many regions. A shortage in water system not only affects water users of a municipality but also that of food system. About 70% of global water is withdrawn for agriculture; livestock and dairy productions are also dependent on water availability. Although researchers and policy makers have identified and emphasized the water-food (WF) nexus in recent decade, most existing WF models offer strategies to reduce trade-offs and to generate benefits without considering feedback loops and adaptations between those systems. Feedback loops between water and food system can help understand long-term behavioral trends between water users of the integrated WF system which, in turn, can help manage water resources sustainably. An Agent-based modeling approach is applied here to develop a conceptual framework of WF systems. All water users in this system are modeled as agents, who are capable of making decisions and can adapt new behavior based on inputs from other agents in a shared environment through a set of logical and mathematical rules. Residential and commercial/industrial consumers are represented as municipal agents; crop, livestock, and dairy farmers are represented as food agents; and water management officials are represented as policy agent. During the period of water shortage, policy agent will propose/impose various water conservation measures, such as adapting water-efficient technologies, banning outdoor irrigation, implementing supplemental irrigation, using recycled water for livestock/dairy production, among others. Municipal and food agents may adapt conservation strategies and will update their demand accordingly. Emergent properties of the WF nexus will arise through dynamic interactions between various actors of water and food system. This model will be implemented to a case study for resource allocation and future policy development.