Floodplain Mapping for the Continental United States Using Machine Learning Techniques and Watershed Characteristics

Using conventional hydrodynamic methods for floodplain mapping in large-scale and data-scarce regions is problematic due to the high cost of these methods, lack of reliable data and uncertainty propagation. In this study a new framework is proposed to generate 100-year floodplains for any gauged or ungauged watershed across the United States (U.S.). This framework uses Flood Insurance Rate Maps (FIRMs), topographic, climatic and land use data which are freely available for entire U.S. for floodplain mapping. The framework consists of three components, including a Random Forest classifier for watershed classification, a Probabilistic Threshold Binary Classifier (PTBC) for generating the floodplains, and a lookup table for linking the Random Forest classifier to the PTBC. The effectiveness and reliability of the proposed framework is tested on 145 watersheds from various geographical locations in the U.S. The validation results show that around 80 percent of total watersheds are predicted well, 14 percent have acceptable fit and less than five percent are predicted poorly compared to FIRMs. Another advantage of this framework is its ability in generating floodplains for all small rivers and tributaries. Due to the high accuracy and efficiency of this framework, it can be used as a preliminary decision making tool to generate 100-year floodplain maps for data-scarce regions and all tributaries where hydrodynamic methods are difficult to use.