Evaluating groundwater recharge variations under climate change in an endorheic basin of the Andean plateau

In arid and semi-arid regions, where surface water and precipitations are scarce, groundwater is the main source of drinking water that sustains human and natural ecosystems. Therefore, it is very important to consider the potential impacts of climate change that threaten the availability of this resource. The purpose of this study is to investigate the variations caused by climate change on the recharge of the regional groundwater aquifer at the Huasco salt flat, located in the Chilean Andean plateau. The Huasco salt flat basin has ecosystems sustained by wetlands that depend on the groundwater levels of this aquifer. Due to this reason, the Chilean government has declared this zone as protected. Hence, the assurance of the future availability of the groundwater resource becomes extremely important. The sustainable management of this resource requires reasonable estimates of recharge and evapotranspiration, which are highly dependent on the characteristics and processes occurring in the vadose zone, i.e., topography, soil type and land use, and their temporal and spatial variations are significant in arid regions. With this aim, a three-dimensional groundwater model, implemented in SWAT-MODFLOW, was developed to couple the saturated system with the vadose zone. The model was calibrated and validated using historic data. General circulation models (GCMs) were used as scenarios inputs of recharge to the groundwater model. Future simulations were run by applying an offset to the historic air temperatures and to the precipitation. These offsets were determined using a delta hybrid approach based on the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) multi-model ensemble archive. The obtained results were downscaled to the 0.125º latitude x 0.125º longitude grid cell containing the basin of the Huasco salt flat. The hybrid approach considered the 10th, 50th and 90th percentiles of the projected temperature and precipitation output as three scenarios of climate change used to evaluate recharge variation.