From Drought to Recovery: a GRACE-Based Assessment of Groundwater Storage Variations in California

The 2011-2015 drought in California was the most severe on record and significantly depleted state water reserves. However, after the consecutive wet winters of 2015-16 and 2016-17, water storage in reservoirs, soil, snowpack, and aquifers began recovering and the state government lifted the drought emergency for all California counties except four. But is the drought really "over"? Quantifiable metrics of groundwater storage are necessary to provide such evidence, yet in situ measurements are sparse at best. Here we holistically test whether California state water resources have fully recovered in the Sacramento, San Joaquin, and Tulare Lake basins of California, using remote sensing satellite observations, in situ measurements, and numerical models. Specifically, we partition water storage into four components of the terrestrial water cycle: soil moisture, snow water equivalent, surface water, and groundwater. We derive soil moisture and snow water equivalent from the North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS) and we use the California Data Exchange Center (CDEC) network to measure in situ reservoir storage. To estimate changes in groundwater storage, we subtract these three components from the total water storage derived from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite. Preliminary results show that the groundwater storage plummeted to a record low during the 2011-2015 drought. The results also show a rapid recovery in total water storage from 2015-2017. Moreover, we find that groundwater accounts for, on average, 60% of the total water storage variations in the study basins. Our results hold social significance when placed in the context of arid California: Did the groundwater recover? Is this the largest recovery that California can expect? Finally, our results have implications for the utility of remote sensing to inform water resource management decisions.