Crustal block motion model and interplate coupling along Ecuador-Colombia trench based on GNSS observation network

IntroductionEcuador-Colombia trench is located at the boundary between South-America plate, Nazca Plate and Caribrian plate. This region is very complexes such as subducting Caribrian plate and Nazca plate, and collision between Panama and northern part of the Andes mountains. The previous large earthquakes occurred along the subducting boundary of Nazca plate, such as 1906 (M8.8) and 1979 (M8.2). And also, earthquakes occurred inland, too. So, it is important to evaluate earthquake potentials for preparing huge damage due to large earthquake in near future. GNSS observation In the last decade, the GNSS observation was established in Columbia. The GNSS observation is called by GEORED, which is operated by servicing Geologico Colomiano. The purpose of GEORED is research of crustal deformation. The number of GNSS site of GEORED is consist of 60 continuous GNSS observation site at 2017 (Mora et al., 2017). The sampling interval of almost GNSS site is 30 seconds. These GNSS data were processed by PPP processing using GIPSY-OASYS II software. GEORED can obtain the detailed crustal deformation map in whole Colombia. In addition, we use 100 GNSS data at Ecuador-Peru region (Nocquet et al. 2014). Method We developed a crustal block movements model based on crustal deformation derived from GNSS observation. Our model considers to the block motion with pole location and angular velocity and the interplate coupling between each block boundaries, including subduction between the South-American plate and the Nazca plate. And also, our approach of estimation of crustal block motion and coefficient of interplate coupling are based on MCMC method. The estimated each parameter is obtained probably density function (PDF). Result We tested 11 crustal block models based on geological data, such as active fault trace at surface. The optimal number of crustal blocks is 11 for based on geological and geodetic data using AIC. We use optimal block motion model. And also, we estimate interplate coupling along the plate interface and rigid block motion. We can evaluate to contribution of elastic deformation and rigid motion. In result, weak plate coupling was found northern part of 3 degree in latitude. Almost crustal deformation are explained by rigid block motion.