GPS Imaging suggests links between climate, magmatism, seismicity, and tectonics in the Sierra Nevada-Long Valley Caldera-Walker Lane system, western United States

The Walker Lane is a region of complex active crustal transtension in the western Great Basin of the western United States, accommodating about 20% of the 50 mm/yr relative motion between the Pacific and North American plates. The Long Valley caldera lies in the central Walker Lane in eastern California, adjacent to the eastern boundary of the Sierra Nevada/Great Valley microplate, and experiences intermittent inflation, uplift, and volcanic unrest from the magma chamber that resides at middle crustal depths. Normal and transform faults accommodating regional tectonic transtension pass by and through the caldera, complicating the interpretation of the GPS-measured strain rate field, estimates of fault slip rates, and seismic hazard. Several dozen continuously recording GPS stations measure strain and uplift in the area with mm precision. They observe that the most recent episode of uplift at Long Valley began in mid-2011, continuing until late 2016, raising the surface by 100 mm in 6 years. The timing of the initiation of uplift coincides with the beginning of severe drought in California. Furthermore, the timing of a recent pause in uplift coincides with the very wet 2016-2017 winter, which saw approximately double normal snow pack. In prior studies, we showed that the timing of changes in geodetically measured uplift rate of the Sierra Nevada coincides with the timing of drought conditions in California, suggesting a link between hydrological loading and Sierra Nevada elevation. Here we take the analysis three steps further to show that changes in Sierra Nevada uplift rate coincide in time with 1) enhanced inflation at the Long Valley caldera, 2) shifts in the patterns and rates of horizontal tensor strain rate, and 3) seismicity patterns in the central Walker Lane. We use GPS solutions from the Nevada Geodetic Laboratory and the new GPS Imaging technique to produce robust animations of the time variable strain and uplift fields. The goals of this work are to document links between climate, Sierra Nevada uplift rates, response of the magmatic system, and seismicity in the Central Walker Lane, and to explore the physical mechanisms that may be behind these correlations.