Improving Polar Motion Predictions Using AAM χ1 and χ2 Forecasts

The uncertainty in our knowledge of the Earth's changing orientation in space is a majorsource of error in tracking and navigating interplanetary spacecraft. Because the Earth'sorientation changes rapidly and unpredictably, measurements must be acquired frequentlyand processed rapidly in order to meet the near-real-time Earth orientation requirements ofthe interplanetary spacecraft navigation teams. The Kalman Earth Orientation Filter (KEOF)is used to combine GPS polar motion and LOD measurements, Very Long Baseline Interferometry(VLBI) polar motion and UT measurements, along with other publicly available Earth orientationmeasurements including proxy measurements such as atmospheric angular momentum (AAM),in order to generate and deliver the required polar motion and UT1 Earth orientation parametersto the spacecraft navigation teams. Short-term predictions of the EOPs are produced in order toprovide the navigation teams with an uninterrupted series of Earth orientation parameters. WhileAAM 𝜒3 forecasts are used as a proxy LOD forecast to improve UT1 predictions, Polar Motionpredictions had not been similarly treated. In order to evaluate the effectiveness off AAM 𝜒1 and 𝜒2forecasts on improving Polar Motion predictions we reprocessed one year (Jan.-Dec. 2015) of EOP measurementsto include the 𝜒1 and 𝜒2 components of National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)AAM daily 5-day forecasts. Inclusion of AAM 𝜒1 and 𝜒2 forecasts into EOP predictions was foundto improve the accuracy of the Polar Motion 5-day predictions by 33% in the X-component and 34% in the Y-component.