Analyzing Snowpack Metrics Over Large Spatial Extents Using Calibrated, Enhanced-Resolution Brightness Temperature Data and Long Short Term Memory Artificial Neural Networks

Snow water equivalence (SWE) is a difficult metric to measure accurately over large spatial extents; snow-tell sites are too localized, and traditional remotely sensed brightness temperature data is at too coarse of a resolution to capture variation. The new Calibrated Enhanced-Resolution Brightness Temperature (CETB) data from the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) offers remotely sensed brightness temperature data at an enhanced resolution of 3.125 km versus the original 25 km, which allows for large spatial extents to be analyzed with reduced uncertainty compared to the 25km product. While the 25km brightness temperature data has proved useful in past research — one group found decreasing trends in SWE outweighed increasing trends three to one in North America; other researchers used the data to incorporate winter conditions, like snow cover, into ecological zoning criterion — with the new 3.125 km data, it is possible to derive more accurate metrics for SWE, since we have far more spatial variability in measurements. Even with higher resolution data, using the 37 - 19 GHz frequencies to estimate SWE distorts the data during times of melt onset and accumulation onset. Past researchers employed statistical splines, while other successful attempts utilized non-parametric curve fitting to smooth out spikes distorting metrics. In this work, rather than using legacy curve fitting techniques, a Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) Artificial Neural Network (ANN) was trained to perform curve fitting on the data. LSTM ANN have shown great promise in modeling time series data, and with almost 40 years of data available — 14,235 days — there is plenty of training data for the ANN. LSTM's are ideal for this type of time series analysis because they allow important trends to persist for long periods of time, but ignore short term fluctuations; since LSTM's have poor mid- to short-term memory, they are ideal for smoothing out the large spikes generated in the melt and accumulation onset seasons, while still capturing the overall trends in the data.