Field Observations and Modeling Results of the McMurdo Shear Zone, Antarctica: Implications on Shear Margin Dynamics and Long- Term Viability of the South Pole Traverse

Antarctica's ice shelves modulate the flow of inland ice towards the ocean. Understanding the controls on ice-shelf stability are critical to predicting the future evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet. For the Ross Ice Shelf (RIS), an important region of lateral resistance is the McMurdo Shear Zone (MSZ), a 5-10 km wide strip of heavily crevassed ice. On a yearly basis the United States Antarctic Program (USAP) mitigates crevasse hazards along the South Pole Traverse (SPoT) route that crosses this region. However, as ice advects northward past the lateral buttress of White Island into a region of greater flow divergence, intensified crevassing has been observed which will continue to place a substantial burden on safety mitigation efforts. The route has advected down-glacier towards this complex region since 2002 so the USAP currently has plans to relocate the shear zone crossing upstream in the near future. Our work aims to assess the feasibility of moving the route to several potential locations based on results from an integrated project incorporating detailed field-based observations of crevasse distributions and orientation from ground-penetrating radar (GPR), GPS and remote sensing observations of the flow and stress field within the MSZ, and finite element numerical modeling of local and regional kinematics within the region. In addition, we assess plausible dynamic forcings both upstream and downstream of the MSZ that could influence shear zone stability. These include changes in mass flux across the grounding lines of tributary glaciers such as the observed increase in ice discharge from of Byrd Glacier (Stearns et al., 2008) as well as changes at the MIS front due to recent intensified rift propagation (Banwel et al., 2017). Results from this work will increase our understanding of ice shelf shear margin dynamics and provide a firm basis for predicting the long-term behavior of the MSZ and viability of the SPoT. Stearns, Leigh A., Benjamin E. Smith, and Gordon S. Hamilton. "Increased flow speed on a large East Antarctic outlet glacier caused by subglacial floods." Nature Geoscience 1.12 (2008): 827. Banwell, Alison F., et al. "Calving and rifting on the McMurdo Ice Shelf, Antarctica." Annals of Glaciology (2017): 1-10.