Modeling the GLOF Hazard Process Chain at Imja Lake in the Nepal Himalaya

The Hindu Kush-Himalaya region contains more glacial ice than any other non-polar region on earth. Many glacial lakes in Nepal are held in place by natural moraine dams, which are inherently unstable. Avalanches or landslides entering glacial lakes can cause tsunami-like waves that can overtop the moraines and trigger glacial lake outburst floods (GLOF). Mass loss at the Imja glacier is the highest in the Mount Everest region, and contributes to the expansion of Imja Tsho, a lake with several villages downstream. A GLOF from the lake might destroy both property and human life, making an understanding of flood triggering processes beneficial for both the downstream villages and other GLOF-prone areas globally. The process chain for an avalanche-induced GLOF was modeled numerically. The volume and velocity of debris from avalanches entering various future lake extents were calculated using RAMMS. Resulting waves and downstream flooding were simulated using BASEMENT to evaluate erosion at the terminal moraine. Wave characteristics in BASEMENT were validated with empirical equations to ensure the proper transfer of momentum from the avalanche to the lake. Moraine erosion was determined for two geomorphologic scenarios: a site-specific scenario using field samples, and a worst-case scenario based on past literature. Both cases resulted in no flooding outside the river channel at downstream villages. Worst-case scenario geomorphology resulted in increased channelization of the lake outlet and some moraine erosion but no catastrophic collapse. Site-specific data yielded similar results but with even less erosion and downstream discharge. While the models confirmed that Imja Tsho is unlikely to produce a catastrophic GLOF in the near future, they also highlight the importance of continued monitoring of the lake. Furthermore, the ease and flexibility of these methods allows for their adoption by a wide range of stakeholders for modeling other high-risk lakes.