Partitioning GRACE ice loss for the Juneau Icefield using modeling, airborne and ground observations

Glaciers of Alaska and Northwestern Canada are losing mass at one of the highest rates of any mountain glacier system globally. High-precision measurements from NASA's Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellites have revealed changes in the local gravitational field along the Gulf of Alaska due to changes in these ice masses since 2003. In previous studies on Alaska glaciers, mass change estimates derived from GRACE compare well to time series' of Gulf of Alaska runoff from mass balance modeling. However, these studies did not adequately partition glacier and terrestrial snow pack mass change signals due to limited modeling capabilities and lack of sufficient ground observations. Our study focuses on the Juneau Icefield, one of the best-monitored areas in Alaska in terms of glacier mass balance, as a case study for partitioning GRACE glacier mass changes from terrestrial water storage changes both seasonally and in long-term trends. We leverage the modeling tool SnowModel to generate a time series of mass changes using assimilated field observations and airborne laser altimetry, and we compare to an iterated mass concentration GRACE solution from the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center Geodesy Laboratory ( 30-day intervals and 12,390 km2 resolution). The GRACE solution forward-models all mass signals other than those due to terrestrial water storage and the cryosphere, therefore requiring additional analysis to partition glacier mass balance and water storage signals. Our approach is one of the first to analyze GRACE at the sub-mountain range scale, and to examine terrestrial water storage trends at a smaller scale than the full Gulf of Alaska. Ultimately, this study points to refinements in the forward-modeling of terrestrial water storage in the GRACE processing chain, and provides best estimates for the timing and magnitude of subannual and long-term changes of the Juneau Icefield from 2003 to present.