Recent Rise in West Greenland Surface Melt and Firn Density Driven by North Atlantic SSTs and Blocking Events
Abstract
The Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) has been losing mass since at least the early 2000s, mostly due to enhanced surface melt. Approximately 40% of the surface melt currently generated on the GrIS percolates into the snow/firn and refreezes, where it has no immediate impact on GrIS mass balance or sea-level rise. However, in situ observations of surface melt are sparse, and thus it remains unclear how melt water percolation and refreezing are modifying the GrIS percolation zone under recent warming. In addition, understanding the climatic drivers behind the recent increase in melt is critical for accurately predicting future GrIS surface melt rates and contributions to sea-level rise. Here we show that there have been significant increases in melt refreeze and firn density over the past 30-50 years along a 250 km-long region of the Western Greenland percolation zone (2137 - 2218 m elevation). We collected seven shallow firn cores as part of the 2016 Greenland Traverse for Accumulation and Climate Studies (GreenTrACS), analyzed each for melt layer stratigraphy and density, and developed timescales for each based on annual layer counting of seasonal chemical oscillations (e.g. δ18O, dust, and biogenic sulfur). The cores indicate that refrozen melt layers have increased 2- to 9-fold since 1970, with statistically significant (p < 0.05) linear trends at the five southernmost core sites. Comparisons of two GreenTrACS cores to co-located PARCA cores collected in 1998 reveal significant (p < 0.05) increases in density averaged over the top 10 m of firn ranging from 32-42 kg/m3. Recent density increases closely correspond with the locations of refrozen melt water. We use output from the MARv3.7 Regional Climate Model to assess climatic forcing of surface melt at GreenTrACS sites, and find significant summer-to-summer correlations between melt generation and the frequency of blocking high pressure centers over Greenland (represented by the Greenland Blocking Index; GBI), and with North Atlantic sea surface temperatures (represented by the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation; AMO). Thus, future surface melt rates in Western Greenland depend on the complex evolution of the GBI and AMO under anthropogenic forcing, both of which remain poorly constrained in 21st century model projections.
- Publication:
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AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts
- Pub Date:
- December 2017
- Bibcode:
- 2017AGUFM.C24C..08O
- Keywords:
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- 0726 Ice sheets;
- CRYOSPHERE;
- 0762 Mass balance 0764 Energy balance;
- CRYOSPHERE;
- 0774 Dynamics;
- CRYOSPHERE;
- 1621 Cryospheric change;
- GLOBAL CHANGE