Contraction and Expansion of the Upper Zambezi Wetlands in Response to Precipitation Regime Changes and Impacts on Carbon, Energy and Water Fluxes

The Upper Zambezi River Basin (UZRB) serves as the headwater catchment of the fourth-largest river in Africa, provides essential freshwater resources to arid and semi-arid regions within its boundaries, and recharges the Northern Kalahari Aquifer. Shallow and clayey soils give way to seasonal waterlogging, especially along drainage lines, favoring the establishment of wetlands. Woodland savanna, grasslands and miombo dominate the UZRB's diverse ecosystem, marking a complex transition zone between the Congo tropical rainforest and the Kalahari Desert that reflects spatial rainfall gradients. Satellite imagery shows that permanent wetlands are located in low-lying convergence zones in the northeast and northwest corners of UZRB where surface-groundwater interactions are most vigorous. However, orographic precipitation gradients cannot fully explain interannual changes in wetland area and vegetation density. We hypothesize that changes in vegetation density result from nonlinear interactions and feedbacks among precipitation, canopy biophysical properties, soil moisture and groundwater processes modulated by topography and regional hydrogeology. This work aims to understand how changes in vegetation density, particularly in and around permanent and intermittent wetlands, impact carbon, energy and water fluxes. Using the MODIS Nadir BRDF-Adjusted Reflectance product, a seasonally-varying wetland class is derived that reflects inter-annual precipitation and groundwater variability. The Duke Coupled Hydrology Model with Prognostic Vegetation is adapted to include C4 photosynthesis for the UZRB grasslands and used to simulate changes in canopy density and impacts on gross primary productivity, evapotranspiration, and soil moisture at high spatial and temporal resolution. Initial results using the column-wise model provide a baseline for understanding surface fluxes before incorporating groundwater and subsurface flows crucial to investigating the implicit nonlinearities of the region.