Can Runoff Responses be Used to Predict Aquatic Biogeochemical Fluxes from Boreal Forest Ecosystems?

Climate change has direct effects on precipitation and temperature, which contribute to indirect changes in ecosystem productivity, runoff, biogeochemical processes, and species composition. In this research, we examine water balances in boreal forest watersheds to determine spatial and inter-annual variations in their responses to changes in precipitation. Our research indicates that Central and Western N. American boreal watersheds with mean annual precipitation (MAP) of less than 1000 mm exhibit positive relationships between annual precipitation and annual evapotranspiration, suggesting an increase in forest productivity during wet years often without increased runoff. In Maritime boreal watersheds in Eastern N. America and N. Europe, runoff is a significantly larger portion of the water balance and runoff increases with precipitation This regionalism in the water balance may have significant consequences for biogeochemical fluxes; for example, where MAP >1000 mm, a future wetter climate may result in increases in the terrestrial-to-aquatic transport of solutes. To test this idea, we examined inter-annual variations in hydrologic and dissolved organic carbon fluxes in watersheds in Newfoundland and Labrador along a longitudinal transect. Mean annual temperature varies from 0-5.2oC along the transect, and MAP varies from 1050 to 1500 mm. Data indicate an increase in evapotranspiration, runoff, and soil DOC fluxes with the increasing mean annual precipitation among watersheds along the transect. During the 2011-2015 period of study there was significant overlap in annual precipitation among the sites. Although wet water years also produced higher amounts of runoff from most watersheds, the annual soil DOC flux within each region was not significantly affected by these inter-annual changes in precipitation. Stream and groundwater monitoring data from the catchments reveal seasonal variations in evapotranspiration and runoff and their role in solute fluxes, and suggest the importance of biological controls on solute fluxes that are not captured by using either wet years or wetter locations as proxies for a future wetter climate.