Predicted Water and Carbon Fluxes as well as Vegetation Distribution on the Korean Peninsula in the Future with the Ecosystem Demography Model version 2

This study investigates how the water and carbon fluxes as well as vegetation distribution on the Korean peninsula would vary with climate change. Ecosystem Demography (ED) Model version 2 (ED2) is used in this study, which is an integrated terrestrial biosphere model that can utilize a set of size- and age- structured partial differential equations that track the changing structure and composition of the plant canopy. With using the vegetation distribution data of Jeju Island, located at the southern part of the Korean Peninsula, ED2 is setup and driven for the past 10 years. Then the results of ED2 are evaluated and adjusted with observed forestry data, i.e., growth and mortality, and the flux tower and MODIS satellite data, i.e., evapotranspiration (ET) and gross primary production (GPP). This adjusted ED2 are used to simulate the water and carbon fluxes as well as vegetation dynamics in the Korean Peninsula for the historical period with evaluating the model against the MODIS satellite data. Finally, the climate scenarios of RCP 2.6 and 6.0 are used to predict the fluxes and vegetation distribution of the Korean Peninsula in the future. With using the state-of-art terrestrial ecosystem model, this study would provide us better understanding of the future ecosystem vulnerability of the Korean Peninsula. AcknowledgementsThis work was supported by Basic Science Research Program through the National Research Foundation of Korea (NRF) funded by the Ministry of Science, ICT & Future Planning (2015R1C1A2A01054800) and by the Korea Meteorological Administration R&D Program under Grant KMIPA 2015-6180. This work was also supported by the Yonsei University Future-leading Research Initiative of 2015(2016-22-0061).