Shifts in the Budyko curve over the past decade in the Amazon basin

The Amazon basin has experienced extensive forest loss during the past decades. These changes can exert significant impact on regional water and energy budget, as well as other environmental processes. Here we evaluated how forest loss in the Madeira and Tapajós River basins, between 2002 and 2015, affected the Budyko relationship. The Budyko framework describes the links between climate and hydrological components, where evapotranspiration (ET) is limited by the supply of either water or energy. The framework is composed by two components, the dryness index (DI) and the evaporative index (EI). The DI determines the type and degree of limitation, with values lower than 1 represent energy-limited condition and values higher than 1, water-limited. The EI describes the partitioning of rainfall (P) into ET and runoff (R), with higher values indicating a larger proportion of ET. In this study, we use a modified version of the Budyko framework, which accounts for intra-annual changes in water storage (dS). Hence, the effective rainfall is represented by P-dS, so that EI=ET/(P-dS) and the DI= PET/(P-dS). We show that the Madeira and Tapajós River basins have lost approximately 60000 km2 and 50000km2 of forested area by 2015, respectively. Our results indicate that these changes caused a subtle shift in the Budyko curve in both basins. At the Madeira basin, a reduction in the DI indicate a shift towards lower water limitation, while decreasing EI indicate that a higher proportion of P is being converted into runoff. At the Tapajós basin, we also observe an overall decrease in the DI, but no significant trends in the evaporative index was observed. We expect that the observed shifts provide a new insight on the Amazon forest responses to changes in climate and land use. Further studies will focus in identifying the biophysical mechanisms driving these shifts, as well as seasonal aspects of the changes.