Observations and Modelling of Alternative Tree Cover States of the Boreal Ecosystem

Recently, multimodality of the tree cover distribution of the boreal forests has been detected, revealing the existence of three alternative vegetation modes. Identifying which are the regions with a potential for alternative tree cover states, and assessing which are the main factors underlying their existence, is important to project future change of natural vegetation cover and its effect on climate.Through the use of generalised additive models and phase-space analysis, we study the link between tree cover distribution and eight globally-observed environmental factors, such as rainfall, temperature, and permafrost distribution. Using a classification based on these factors, we show the location of areas with potentially alternative tree cover states under the same environmental conditions in the boreal region. Furthermore, to explain the multimodality found in the data and the asymmetry between North America and Eurasia, we study a conceptual model based on tree species competition, and use it to simulate the sensitivity of tree cover to changes in environmental factors.We find that the link between individual environmental variables and tree cover differs regionally. Nonetheless, environmental conditions uniquely determine the vegetation state among the three dominant modes in ∼95% of the cases. On the other hand, areas with potentially alternative tree cover states encompass ∼1.1 million km2, and correspond to possible transition zones with a reduced resilience to disturbances. Employing our conceptual model, we show that multimodality can be explained through competition between tree species with different adaptations to environmental factors and disturbances. Moreover, the model is able to reproduce the asymmetry in tree species distribution between Eurasia and North America. Finally, we find that changes in permafrost could be associated with bifurcation points of the model, corroborating the importance of permafrost in a changing climate.