Evaluating High-Resolution CESM Hurricane Climatology: Comparing Model Landfalls to Observational Landfalls

In many coastal areas where communities are vulnerable, the impact of tropical cyclones can be devastating and linger for generations. One way to mitigate the impact of tropical cyclones is by understanding and improving models that have the ability to predict their climatology and distribution. Using a high-resolution (28km) version of the Community Earth System Model (CESM), we evaluate simulations of hurricane climatology utilizing sea surface temperature observations coupled with a free running atmospheric model. We compare three model ensemble member outputs to actual observations of hurricanes over a 34-year period between 1979 and 2012. This allows for analysis of quantitative and qualitative differences between the National Hurricane Center's observational data and objectively tracked CESM tropical cyclones. Storm trajectory points were filtered by surface elevation to only include storms over land in the final analysis. Storms were also filtered by intensity and time frame to see how the model simulates strong storms and when the model performs best. A key aspect discussed in this presentation will be biases in cyclone landfalls along the U.S. coastline relative to the historical record. These results can help inform policymakers and stakeholders concerned with tropical cyclone impacts in coastal regions and highlight areas for potential model improvement.