Reducing residential solid fuel combustion through electrified space heating leads to substantial air quality, health and climate benefits in China's Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region

During periods of high pollution in winter, household space heating can contribute more than half of PM2.5 concentrations in China's Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region. The majority of rural households and some urban households in the region still heat with small stoves and solid fuels such as raw coal, coal briquettes and biomass. Thus, reducing emissions from residential space heating has become a top priority of the Chinese government's air pollution mitigation plan. Electrified space heating is a promising alternative to solid fuel. However, there is little analysis of the air quality and climate implications of choosing various electrified heating devices and utilizing different electricity sources. Here we conduct an integrated assessment of the air quality, human health and climate implications of various electrified heating scenarios in the BTH region using the Weather Research and Forecasting model with Chemistry. We use the Multi-resolution Emission Inventory for China for the year 2012 as our base case and design two electrification scenarios in which either direct resistance heaters or air source heat pumps are installed to replace all household heating stoves. We initially assume all electrified heating devices use electricity from supercritical coal-fired power plants. We find that installing air source heat pumps reduces CO2 emissions and premature deaths due to PM2.5 pollution more than resistance heaters, relative to the base case. The increased health and climate benefits of heat pumps occur because they have a higher heat conversion efficiency and thus require less electricity for space heating than resistance heaters. We also find that with the same heat pump installation, a hybrid electricity source (40% of the electricity generated from renewable sources and the rest from coal) further reduces both CO2 emissions and premature deaths than using electricity only from coal. Our study demonstrates the air pollution and CO2 mitigation potential and public health benefits of using electrified space heating. In particular, we find air source heat pumps could bring more climate and health benefits than direct resistance heaters. Our results also support policies to integrate renewable energy sources with the reduction of solid fuel combustion for residential space heating.