Factors Affecting Aerosol Radiative Forcing from Both Production-based and Consumption-based View

Aerosol radiative forcing (RF) is determined by emissions and various chemical-transport-radiative processes in the atmosphere, a multi-factor problem whose individual contributors have not been well quantified. This problem becomes more complicated when taking into account the role of international trade, which means reallocated aerosol RF due to separation of regions producing goods and emissions and regions consuming those goods. Here we analyze major factors affecting RF of secondary inorganic aerosols (SIOAs, including sulfate, nitrate and ammonium), primary organic aerosol (POA) and black carbon (BC), extending the work of Lin et al. (2016, Nature Geoscience). We contrast five factors determining production-based (RFp, due to a region's production of goods) and consumption-based (RFc, due to a region's consumption) forcing by 11 major regions, including population size, per capita output, emission intensity (emission per output), chemical efficiency (mass per unit emission) and radiative efficiency (RF per unit mass). Comparing across the 11 regions, East Asia produces the strongest RFp and RFc of SIOA and BC and the second largest RFp and RFc of POA primarily due to its high emission intensity. Although Middle East and North Africa has low emissions, its RFp is strengthened by its largest chemical efficiency for POA and BC and second largest chemical efficiency for SIOA. However, RFp of South-East Asia and Pacific is greatly weakened by its lowest chemical efficiency. Economic trade means that net importers (Western Europe, North America and Pacific OECD) have higher RFc than RFp by 50-100%. And such forcing difference is mainly due to the high emission intensity of the exporters supplying these regions. For North America, SIOA's RFc is 50% stronger than RFp, for that emission intensity of SIOA is 5.2 times in East Asia and 2.5 times in Latin America and Caribbean compared with that in North America, and the chemical efficiency in the top four exporters are 1.4-2.1 times of North America. For East Asia, the RFc of SIOA is 20% lower than RFp due to the relatively low emission intensity and chemical efficiency of the top two exporters (Pacific OECD and Western Europe). Overall, economic, emission and atmospheric factors all play important roles in differentiating regions' RFp and RFc.