Regional aerosol trends over the North Atlantic Ocean since 2002: identifying and attributing using satellite, surface, and model datasets

Aerosols from natural and anthropogenic sources can influence atmospheric variability and alter Earth's radiative balance through direct and indirect processes. Recently, policies targeting anthropogenic species (e.g. the Clean Air Act) have seen success in improving air quality. The anthropogenic contributions to the total aerosol loading and its spatiotemporal pattern/trend are anticipated to be altered. In this work the aerosol loading and trend over the North Atlantic Ocean since 2002 are examined, a period of significant change due to anthropogenic emissions control measures within the U.S. Monthly mean data from satellite (MODIS), ground (AERONET, IMPROVE), and model (GOCART, MERRA) sources are employed. Two annual trends in aerosol optical depth (AOD) observed by MODIS are present: a -0.020 decade-1 trend in the mid-latitudes and a 0.015 decade-1 trend in the sub-tropics. Trends in GOCART species AOD reveal anthropogenic (natural) species as the likely driver of the mid-latitude (sub-tropical) trend. AERONET AOD trends confirm negative AOD trends at three upwind sites in the Eastern U.S. and IMPROVE particulate matter (PM) observations identifies the role of decreasing ammonium sulfate in the overall PM decrease. Meanwhile, an increasing AOD trend seen during summertime in the eastern sub-tropics is associated with dust aerosol from North Africa. A dust parameterization from Kaufman et al. (2005) allows for changes in the flux transport across the sub-tropics to be calculated and analyzed. Using MERRA reanalysis fields, it is hypothesized that amplified warming and increases in baroclinic instability over the Saharan desert may lead to increased dust mobilization and export from North Africa to the sub-tropical Atlantic. This study provides updated analysis through 2016.