Edouard's (2014) Intensification: An Investigation of Precipitation and Thermodynamic Symmetrization Using a Cloud-Resolving Ensemble

Literature over the past 10 years has provided conflicting views about the relative importance of precipitation symmetry and convective intensity for tropical cyclone intensification. While several modeling studies (Braun et al. 2006, Guimond et al. 2010, Molinari et al. 2013, Rogers et al. 2013, 2015) have favored intense deep convection, satellite-based composite studies, on the other hand, have offered a differing pathway towards tropical cyclone intensification emphasizing shallow to moderate precipitation (Zagrodnik and Jiang 2014, Tao and Jiang 2015, Alvey et al. 2015). This has left fundamental questions unanswered regarding the relationships between precipitation and TC intensity change: What are the dominant precipitation types, their spatial distributions, and the timing of these features with respect to intensification? And what causes precipitation to symmetrize and increase in the upshear quadrants? One potentially important process, the humidification of upshear quadrants, has been identified to occur nearly coincidental with increased precipitation symmetry prior to and during Edouard's (2014) intensification (Zawislak et al. 2016). While observations from the Global Hawk and P-3 provided important snapshots throughout the life cycle of Edouard (2014), numerical simulations complement and reveal, in more detail, the processes behind these relationships through filling an 48-hour airborne observational gap during a crucial period of intensification between 12-14 Sept. We use a high resolution, full physics ensemble of Edouard (2014) simulated by the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model - Advanced Research WRF (ARW; Skamarock et al., 2008). We deem the quantification of azimuthal variations — with a focus on the shear-relative quadrants — as particularly important, especially early in intensification when thermodynamic and precipitation distributions tend to be more asymmetric. Using a water vapor budget and trajectories we examine whether precipitation is responsible for upshear humidification (moistening), or if an increase is due to advection from the environment, or simply a result of alignment (perhaps due to a decrease in vertical shear).