Cosmic rays and other space phenomena dangerous for the Earth's civilization: Foundation of cosmic ray warning system and beginning steps
Abstract
This report is an example how fundamental research in Cosmic Ray (CR) Astrophysics and Geophysics can be applied to very important modern practical problem: monitoring by CR space weather and prediction by using on-line CR data space phenomena dangerous for satellites electronics and astronauts health in the space, for crew and passengers health on commercial jets in atmosphere (altitude about 10 km and higher), and in some rare cases for technology and people health on the ground, prediction on the role of CR and other space weather factors in climate change and influence on agriculture production. It is well known that in periods of great SEP (Solar Energetic Particle) events, the fluxes can be so big that memory of computers and other electronics in space may be destroyed, satellites and spaceships became dead (each year Insurance Companies paid billions dollars for these failures (if will be event as February 23, 1956, will be destroyed about all satellites in few hours, the price of this will be more than 10-20 billion dollars, will be total destroying satellite communications and a rose a lot of other problems). In periods of great SEP events is necessary to switch off some part of electronics for short time to protect computer memories. These periods are also dangerous for astronauts on space-ships, and International Space Station (ISS), passengers and crew in commercial jets (especially during S5-S7 radiation storms). The problem is how to forecast exactly these dangerous phenomena. We show that exact forecast can be made by using high-energy particles (about 2-10 GeV/nucleon and higher) which transportation from the Sun is characterized by much bigger diffusion coefficient than for small and middle energy particles. Therefore high energy particles came from the Sun much more early (8-20 minutes after acceleration and escaping into solar wind) than main part of smaller energy particles caused dangerous situation for electronics and people health (about 60 and more minutes later). We describe here principles and experience of automatically working program "SEP-Start", supposed, developed and checked in the Emilio Segre' Observatory of Israel Cosmic Ray and Space Weather Center (Mt. Hermon, 2050 m above sea level, cut-off rigidity 10.8 GV). Using of this program on many CR stations and on satellites allowed determining automatically the beginning of SEP event. It is the First Step of our program. The Second Step is "SEP-Space" - transformation obtained at different altitudes and cutoff rigidities data on CR intensity to the space and calculation CR energy spectrum and angle distribution out of the Earth's atmosphere and magnetosphere, directly in the interplanetary space near the Earth. Before we made these complicated operations step by step on the basis of historical SEP events data during long time and determined flare energetic particle spectrum in the interplanetary space and its change with time by method of coupling functions (in scientific literature called as Dorman functions). Now we prepared algorithms and try to create program which will be made these calculations automatically after each new minute of CR data very quickly for time not more than few seconds. The Third Step "SEP-Inverse Problem" is based on theoretically solved by Lev Dorman about 15 years ago inverse problem and determine time of ejection energetic particles, source function and transport parameters in dependence from particle energy and distance from the Sun. Before we made corresponding calculations very long time, so obtained results cannot be practically used for forecasting. Now we prepared all algorithms and try to create program which will be made these calculations automatically after each new minute of CR data very quickly for time not more than few seconds. The Fourth Step "SEP-Forecasting" based on the theoretically solved direct problem and parameters founded in the Third Step and known coupling functions, we calculate time evolution of solar CR spectrum with time and expected total fluence (radiation hazards) in the interplanetary space for spaceships at different distances from the Sun in dependence of shielding, in the Earth's magnetosphere for satellites with different orbits, in the Earth's atmosphere for airplanes on different airlines in dependence of altitude and cutoff rigidities, and for ground at different air pressure and cutoff rigidities. Again, we checked all these mathematical procedures basing on real data of historical SEP events and it need so long time that it was not possible to use these results for forecasting of expected radiation hazards. Now we for this step also prepared all algorithms and try to create program which will be made these calculations automatically after each new minute of CR data very quickly for time not more than few seconds. To determine the quality of obtained results, after 5-10 minutes from beginning starts to work the final, Fives Step. The Fives Step "Checking of Forecasting Quality and Alerts" starts to work at 5-10 minutes after beginning. In this Step we compare expected (calculated in the Fourth Step by using coupling functions CR intensity for neutron monitors on different stations and on satellites) with observed. If the difference will be small enough (smaller than 10-20%) and the radiation hazards expected to be dangerous for spaceships in the interplanetary space, for some satellites in the Earth's magnetosphere, for airplanes on some airlines or for some objects on the ground, will be send corresponding Alerts with detail information on the expected radiation hazards calculated in the Fourth Step. After few minutes a new, more exact Alerts will be sent. More and more exact new Alerts will be repeated each few minutes during the dangerous event. Let us outline that Step 1 finished to work after determining the beginning of SEP event, but Steps 2 - 5 continued to work for each new minute. They will be finished to work only when the difference between consequences Alerts became much smaller than errors. In our report "Cosmic Rays and other Space Weather Effects Influenced on Satellites Operation, Technologies, Biosphere and People Health" it was shown that very important element of Space Weather, influenced on satellites operation, technologies, and people health are strong magnetic storms, accompanied usually by CR Forbush effects. We discuss here on the possibility to include in the "Cosmic Ray Warning System" possibility to forecast this phenomenon, also dangerous for the Earth's Civilization. In the report "Cosmic Rays and other Space Phenomena Influenced on the Earth's Climate" on this Conference it was shown that very big changes in climate, dangerous for the Earth's Civilization, are caused by interactions of Solar system with molecular-dust clouds (caused the Great Ice Periods during many thousand years). Very dangerous for the Earth's Civilization are also nearby supernova explosions with great influence on biosphere and climate. We show that by CR data in the frame of "Cosmic Ray Warning System" is possible to forecast for many years before starting these dangerous phenomena, so the Earth's Civilization will have enough time for preparing to the new type of life. For this forecasting we need to add to the "Cosmic Ray Warning System" in near future several CR stations for continue measuring CR with much higher energies (1013 - 1014 eV). We hope to organize the mostly automatic working "Cosmic Ray Warning System" in cooperation with Azerbaijan, Israel, and many CR stations in the World. The Project will be open for any country and organizations (ESA, NASA and so on) and will be start as soon as possible. In the first 3 - 5 years we hope that forecasting of radiation hazards will be made fully automatically as it was described in this report. In the next 5-10 years the Project will be expanded for forecasting dangerous magnetic storms (in this case we need to use also muon telescopes data), and then for forecasting of the Solar System collisions with molecular-dust clouds and forecasting of dangerous nearby Supernova explosions (in these two cases we need to add continue measurements on several stations CR with energies 10^13 - 10^14 eV).
- Publication:
-
41st COSPAR Scientific Assembly
- Pub Date:
- July 2016
- Bibcode:
- 2016cosp...41E1140L