Enhanced intensity of global tropical cyclones during the mid-Pliocene warm period

To better understand how tropical cyclones (TCs) may respond to future warming, we explore the behavior of TCs during the mid-Pliocene warm period (∼3 Ma), which shares characteristics of projected warmer climate. Our TC-permitting numerical simulations predict enhanced global-average peak TC intensity, longer duration, increased power dissipation, and a poleward migration of the location of peak intensity during the mid-Pliocene, although there are regional differences in the magnitude and statistical power of the climate/TC relationships. Our results share similarities with global TC changes observed during recent global warming and in most future projections and provide a window into the potential TC activity that may be expected in a warmer world.