Predictable evolution toward flightlessness in volant island birds

Predictable evolutionary trends illuminate mechanisms that affect the diversity of traits and species on the tree of life. We show that when birds colonize islands, they undergo predictable changes in body shape. Small-island bird populations evolve smaller flight muscles and longer legs. These shifts in investment from wings to legs, although often subtle, are qualitatively similar to changes that have occurred in flightless bird lineages. Islands with fewer predator species were associated with more dramatic shifts toward flightlessness, implicating reduced predation pressure as the most likely cause of this trend. These predictable evolutionary changes likely exacerbate the vulnerability of flighted island birds to introduced predators and reduce the potential for small-island species to give rise to subsequent radiations.