Consequential life cycle air emissions externalities for plug-in electric vehicles in the PJM interconnection

We perform a consequential life cycle analysis of plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs), hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs), and conventional gasoline vehicles in the PJM interconnection using a detailed, normative optimization model of the PJM electricity grid that captures the change in power plant operations and related emissions due to vehicle charging. We estimate and monetize the resulting human health and environmental damages from life cycle air emissions for each vehicle technology. We model PJM using the most recent data available (2010) as well as projections of the PJM grid in 2018 and a hypothetical scenario with increased wind penetration. We assess a range of sensitivity cases to verify the robustness of our results. We find that PEVs have higher life cycle air emissions damages than gasoline HEVs in the recent grid scenario, which has a high percentage of coal generation on the margin. In particular, battery electric vehicles with large battery capacity can produce two to three times as much air emissions damage as gasoline HEVs, depending on charge timing. In our future 2018 grid scenarios that account for predicted coal plant retirements, PEVs would produce air emissions damages comparable to or slightly lower than HEVs.