The role of extra-tropical cyclones in forecast error development

The occurrence of significant weather (e.g. high wind or precipitation) in the extra-tropics is often attributable to the occurrence of extra-tropical cyclones. It stands to reason then that errors in prediction of these weather events can be associated with errors in the prediction of cyclones. In this work we quantify the extent to which errors in the forecasts of high winds and precipitation can be attributed to errors in the evolution of extra-tropical cyclones. The extent to which forecast errors depend on the errors in the tracks of extra-tropical cyclones within the fifteen-day Met Office Global and Regional Ensemble Prediction System (MOGREPS-15).