Radiation belt electron flux forecasts: Driving VERB using NARMAX GSO flux forecasts
Abstract
Physics based models, such as VERB, are capable of achieving excellent past-cast and now-cast models of the dynamics of electron fluxes throughout the radiation belt region. Their ability to forecast, however, is strongly dependant upon the accurate forecast of their driving parameters. In contrast, data based models, generated using Systems Science methodologies such as NARMAX, have been shown to achieve highly accurate forecasts over limited spatial domains such as GSO. This paper outlines the use of NARMAX forecasts to drive VERB. Example past-casts are discussed and compared to observations from the Van Allen Probe MagEIS instrument.
- Publication:
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AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts
- Pub Date:
- December 2016
- Bibcode:
- 2016AGUFMSH11C2258W
- Keywords:
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- 4305 Space weather;
- NATURAL HAZARDSDE: 7594 Instruments and techniques;
- SOLAR PHYSICS;
- ASTROPHYSICS;
- AND ASTRONOMYDE: 7924 Forecasting;
- SPACE WEATHERDE: 7999 General or miscellaneous;
- SPACE WEATHER