Shifting Climate Modes and a Warm Little Ice Age: Paleo Productivity and Temperature Determinations from the Southern California Current Over the Last Millennium

The ocean dynamical thermostat hypothesis predicts that stronger [weaker] equatorial radiation forces warmer [cooler] western Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and a cooler [warmer] Eastern Equatorial Pacific (EEP) through air-sea coupling of the Walker circulation. Although proxy data offers some support for this prediction, recent SST reconstructions from the EEP suggest complex relationships between Northern Hemisphere (NH) and EEP temperature during the last millennium (Rustic et al. 2015), with EEP SSTs positively covarying with NH temperature during the Medieval Warm Period but negatively covarying during the Little Ice Age (LIA). Whereas most proxy reconstructions have focused on the EEP upwelling zone, few high-resolution studies exist from the California Current (CC)—a region whose oceanography displays exceptional fidelity to the El Niño Southern Oscillation and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. In particular, southern CC oceanography reflects a balance between tropically-sourced and more northerly, temperate waters. Teasing these signals apart across past centuries can provide insight as to how a more complex dynamical thermostat affects the subtropics. Does the subtropical eastern Pacific track EEP SST across multiple centuries and climatic transitions? We present a record from the San Lazaro Basin (25N, 112.5W) in the subtropical eastern Pacific off Baja, Mexico of SST and marine paleoproductivity based upon alkenone saturation and concentrations (C37tot) over the last millennium. By combining these analyses on laminated sediment cores with newly published productivity records from the same site, we provide the first sub decadal paleoceanographic record from the southern California upwelling zone. We observe quasi-periodic short-lived cold excursions, centennial modulation of multidecadal periodicities, and an inverse relationship between C37tot and SST at lower frequencies. Our SST record displays a warm Little Ice Age, similar to but 100 years earlier than EEP warmth observed at 1500 CE (Rustic et al. 2015). In spite of this mismatch, the similarity between these records and the correlation of LIA warmth with NH cooling offers support for the dynamical thermostat's application in subtropical settings, provided they are plumbed to the equatorial climatology.