Evaluation of Soil Water Index Warning Model Typhoon Event Case in 2015

In the face of the threat of the landslide disaster, establishing warning systems and evacuating inhabitants are recognized as effective approaches for disaster risk reduction. Because rainfall is the main cause of disasters caused by slope. Rainfall information is easier to obtain. Therefore many countries used rainfall index to establish landslide disaster warning model. Soil water index warning model based on the tank model and can be used to assess the possibility of occurrence of slope disasters in Taiwan. Additionally, tank model is a conceptual model which simulates water moving behavior between and in the soil layers. The sum of depths in the three tanks was used as a soil water index (SWI). This study present evaluation index of warning effectiveness: the warning hit rate, false alert rate, warning cover rate, and analyze typhoon event actual disaster cases in 2015. The results show that model has 65.5% of hit rate, 75.9% of the coverage rate, and 96.5% of the warning alert false positive rate. It point out that the model is not sufficient to predict the location and scale of the disaster. Finally, our research is looking forward to divide each region's warning value in order to upgrade the hit rate and decrease the warning alert false positive rate.