Identifying tectonic parameters that affect tsunamigenesis

The role of tectonics in tsunami generation is at present poorly understood. However, the fact thatsome regions produce more tsunamis than others indicates that tectonics could influencetsunamigenesis. Here, we complement a global earthquake database that contains geometrical,mechanical, and seismicity parameters of subduction zones with tsunami data. We statisticallyanalyse the database to identify the tectonic parameters that affect tsunamigenesis. The Pearson'sproduct-moment correlation coefficients reveal high positive correlations of 0.65 between,amongst others, the maximum water height of tsunamis and the seismic coupling in a subductionzone. However, these correlations are mainly caused by outliers. The Spearman's rank correlationcoefficient results in statistically significant correlations of 0.60 between the number of tsunamisin a subduction zone and subduction velocity (positive correlation) and the sediment thickness atthe trench (negative correlation). Interestingly, there is a positive correlation between the latter andtsunami magnitude. These bivariate statistical methods are extended to a binary decision tree(BDT) and multivariate analysis. Using the BDT, the tectonic parameters that distinguish betweensubduction zones with tsunamigenic and non-tsunamigenic earthquakes are identified. To assessphysical causality of the tectonic parameters with regard to tsunamigenesis, we complement ouranalysis by a numerical study of the most promising parameters using a geodynamic seismic cyclemodel. We show that the inclusion of sediments on the subducting plate results in an increase insplay fault activity, which could lead to larger vertical seafloor displacements due to their steeperdips and hence a larger tsunamigenic potential. We also show that the splay fault is the preferredrupture path for a strongly velocity strengthening friction regime in the shallow part of thesubduction zone, which again increases the tsunamigenic potential.