Moisture Flux Application and Other Uses of the ATMS-MIRS Retrievals for Tropical Cyclone Intensity Forecasting

The ATMS-MIRS (Advanced Technology Microwave Sounder - Microwave Integrated Retrieval System) and NUCAPS (NOAA Unique Combined Atmosphere Processing System) temperature and moisture retrievals from the ATMS and CrIS (Cross-Track Infrared Sounder) on-board of the JPSS Suomi National Polar-Orbiting Partnership satellite (S-NPP) provide unique information about tropical cyclone (TC) structure and environmental conditions that could be critical for the forecasting of TC intensity. Such information is generally underutilized and this presentation will discuss a moisture flux application that uses ATMS-MIRS and NUCAPS data to diagnose dry air intrusions into the near TC environment. Dry air intrusions are important to TC intensity changes as the entrainment of the dry air impacts deep convection and is one of the environmental parameters routinely evaluated by forecasters. Statistics showing that MIRS and NUCAPS moisture profiles provide better information about the TC environment as compared to the GFS (Global Forecast System) model, and that the ATMS-MIRS provides additional and unique information about the TC warm core structure will be presented together with the examples of the standalone moisture flux application and its uses. For instance, the integrated moisture flux can be converted to a predictor for the Rapid Intensification Index (RII), the statistical-dynamical tool used operationally at the National Hurricane Center (NHC) and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) to forecast TC Rapid Intensification (RI) events - a challenging and very important intensity forecast problem. In addition, the possibility of using the ATMS-MIRS retrievals to detect warm core changes during RI evens and to provide a quantitative estimate of those changes will be discussed. Disclaimer: The views, opinions, and findings contained in this article are those of the authors and should not be construed as an official National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) or U.S. Government position, policy, or decision.