Using Satellite Data to Unpack Causes of Yield Gaps in India's Wheat Belt

India will face significant food security challenges in the coming decades due to climate change, natural resource degradation, and population growth. Yields of wheat, one of India's staple crops, are already stagnating and will be significantly impacted by warming temperatures. Despite these challenges, wheat yields can be enhanced by implementing improved management in regions with existing yield gaps. To identify the magnitude and causes of current yield gaps, we produced 30 m resolution yield maps across India's main wheat belt, the Indo-Gangetic Plains (IGP), from 2000 to 2015. Yield maps were derived using a new method that translates satellite vegetation indices to yield estimates using crop model simulations, bypassing the need for ground calibration data that rarely exist in smallholder systems. We find that yields can be increased by 5% on average and up to 16% in the eastern IGP by improving management to current best practices within a given district. However, if policies and technologies are put in place to improve management to current best practices in Punjab, the highest yielding state, yields can be increased by 29% in the eastern IGP. Considering which factors most influence wheat yields, we find that later sow dates and warmer temperatures are most associated with low yields across the IGP. This suggests that strategies that reduce the negative effects of heat stress, like earlier sowing and planting heat-tolerant wheat varieties, are critical to India's current and future food security.