21st Century Heat Stress Projections and their Effects on US Livestock

In this study we aim to determine future yield changes in the United States for livestock caused by heat stress, under the high greenhouse gas emissions scenario, representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5). We use CMIP5 output and the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble (CESM LENS), produced by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). We apply the HumanIndexMod, a diagnostic heat stress package, to calculate Temperature Humidity Index for Comfort (THIC) and wet bulb temperature (Buzan et al., 2015). THIC is used to assess an animal's behavioral changes as it is subjected to discomfort. Using output from our simulations with the HumanIndexMod, we utilized the agricultural livestock model of St. Pierre et al. (2003). THIC and wet bulb temperatures are all projected by climate models to increase by the end of the century. We found that increases in THIC and heat stress are caused by both temperature and humidity increases. We show the differences for dry matter intake loss and milk loss for the Dairy Cow Model as well as other yield related variables. These variables are estimated to decrease overall production for dairy cattle, finishing hogs, poultry and various livestock. By the end of the 21st century (2071-2100), dairy cow milk production decreases by 14%, and food intake decreases by 11% compared to the beginning of the century (2005-2034). 35% less weight is gained and 19% less food is consumed by hogs the end of the century compared to the beginning of the century. We estimate and discuss resulting yield losses for the livestock industries and the implications of these losses in the United States. These results indicate that the effect of heat stress on livestock production will be highest for dairy cows, finishing hogs, and poultry.References:Buzan, J.R., K. Oleson, and M. Huber. 2015. Implementation and comparison of a suite of heat stress metrics within the Community Land Model version 4.5. Geoscien. Model Devel. 8(2): 151-170. St-Pierre, N.R., B. Cobanov, and G. Schnitkey. 2003. Economic losses from heat stress by US livestock industries. J. Dairy Sci. 86: E52-77.