Cropping Pattern Detection and Change Analysis in Central Luzon, Philippines Using Multi-Temporal MODIS Imagery and Artificial Neural Network Classifier

Cropping practices in the Philippines has been intensifying with greater demand for food and agricultural supplies in view of an increasing population and advanced technologies for farming. This has not been monitored regularly using traditional methods but alternative methods using remote sensing has been promising yet underutilized. This study employed multi-temporal data from MODIS and neural network classifier to map annual land use in agricultural areas from 2001-2014 in Central Luzon, the primary rice growing area of the Philippines. Land use statistics derived from these maps were compared with historical El Nino events to examine how land area is affected by drought events. Fourteen maps of agricultural land use was produced, with the primary classes being single-cropping, double-cropping and perennial crops with secondary classes of forests, urban, bare, water and other classes. Primary classes were produced from the neural network classifier while secondary classes were derived from NDVI threshold masks. The overall accuracy for the 2014 map was 62.05% and a kappa statistic of 0.45. 155.56% increase in single-cropping systems from 2001 to 2014 was observed while double cropping systems decreased by 14.83%. Perennials increased by 76.21% while built-up areas decreased by 12.22% within the 14-year interval. There are several sources of error including mixed-pixels, scale-conversion problems and limited ground reference data. An analysis including El Niño events in 2004 and 2010 demonstrated that marginally irrigated areas that usually planted twice in a year resorted to single cropping, indicating that scarcity of water limited the intensification allowable in the area. Findings from this study can be used to predict future use of agricultural land in the country and also examine how farmlands have responded to climatic factors and stressors.