Conceptualization and Simulation of the Alaskan Arctic Tundra Landscape Evolution Using the Alaska Thermokarst Model

The Arctic, including Alaska, is currently undergoing a change in climate, with observed increases in both mean surface temperature and precipitation. The combination of these increases in precipitation and temperature has resulted in a permafrost condition that is susceptible to thermokarst. Changes in the landscape due to thermokarst takes place whenever ice-rich permafrost thaws and the land surface subsides due to the volume loss when ground-ice transitions to water. The important processes associated with thermokarst include surface ponding, changes in topography, vegetation distribution, soil moisture conditions, drainage patterns, and related erosion. The Alaska Thermokarst Model (ATM) is a large-scale, state-and-transition model designed to simulate transitions between landscape units affected by thermokarst disturbance. The ATM using a frame-based methodology to track cohorts transitions and their respective proportions within each model grid cell. In the arctic tundra environment, the ATM tracks thermokarst related transitions among wetland tundra, graminoid tundra,shrub tundra and lakes. The transition from one cohort to another due to thermokarst processes can take place if thaw reaches ice-rich ground layers either due to pulse disturbance or due to gradual active layer deepening that eventually results in penetration of the protective layer. The protective layer buffers the ice-rich soils from the land surface and is critical to determine how susceptible an area is to thermokarst degradation. The initial landcover distribution is based upon analysis of compiled remote sensing data sets at 30-m resolution. Remote sensing analysis and field measurements from previous and ongoing studies are used to determine the ice-content of the soil, the drainage efficiency (or the ability of the landscape to store or transport water), the cumulative probability of thermokarst initiation, distance from rivers, lake dynamics (increasing, decreasing, or stable), and other factors which help determine landscape transition rates. Tundra types are allowed to transition from one type to another (for example, wetland tundra to graminoid tundra) under favorable climatic conditions. In this study, we present our conceptualization and initial simulation results from in the arctic regions of Alaska.