Insights on the Feasibility, Modeling and Field Testing of Cirrus Cloud Thinning from Satellite Remote Sensing

To date, it is not clear whether the climate intervention method known as cirrus cloud thinning (CCT) can be viable since it requires cirrus clouds to form through homogeneous ice nucleation (henceforth hom) and some recent GCM studies predict cirrus are formed primarily through heterogeneous ice nucleation (henceforth het). A new CALIPSO infrared retrieval method has been developed for single-layer cirrus cloud that measures the temperature dependence of their layer-averaged number concentration N, effective diameter De and ice water content for optical depths (OD) between 0.3 and 3.0. Based on N, the prevailing ice nucleation mechanism (hom or het) can be estimated as a function of temperature, season, latitude and surface type. These satellite results indicate that seeding cirrus clouds at high latitudes during winter may produce significant global surface cooling. This is because hom often appears to dominate over land during winter north of 30°N latitude while the same appears true for most of the Southern Hemisphere (south of 30°S) during all seasons. Moreover, the sampled cirrus cloud frequency of occurrence in the Arctic is at least twice as large during winter relative to other seasons, while frequency of occurrence in the Antarctic peaks in the spring and is second-highest during winter. During Arctic winter, a combination of frequent hom cirrus, maximum cirrus coverage and an extreme or absent sun angle produces the maximum seasonal cirrus net radiative forcing (warming). Thus a reduction in OD and coverage (via CCT) for these cirrus clouds could yield a significant net cooling effect. From these CALIPSO retrievals, De-T relationships are generated as a function of season, latitude and surface type (land vs. ocean). These will be used in CAM5 to estimate De and the ice fall speed, from which the cirrus radiative forcing will be estimated during winter north of 30°latitude, where hom cirrus are common. Another CAM5 simulation will replace the hom cirrus De-T relationships with those corresponding to het cirrus (at similar latitudes). In this way the potential cooling from CCT in the Northern Hemisphere will be estimated. If a field campaign was ever conducted for testing the efficacy of CCT, this CALIPSO retrieval could be used to help determine whether the seeded hom cirrus were transformed into het cirrus.