The Economic Impact of Adaptive Responses to Future Scenarios of Socio-Economic and Ecological Change in the Tonle Sap Ecosystem, Cambodia

The livelihoods of people dependent on the Tonle Sap floodplain ecosystem in Cambodia are expected to be affected by future socio-economic, policy, ecological, and climate change. To investigate the economic impact of these changes on fishing dependent communities, we compare the net income from individuals' current livelihoods to that derived from reallocating their livelihood activities under 4 different scenarios depicting future change. Under current conditions, we find that the group of individuals who do not participate in fishing had the lowest net income. In contrast, individuals who participated in fishing only had comparatively higher average net income than those with multiple livelihoods, suggesting that there may be current gains from livelihood specialisation. When presented with scenarios of future ecological and socio-economic change, the majority of respondents chose to retain their current livelihood strategy under all future scenarios. Of those who did change their livelihood allocation, less than 10% actually experienced a gain in economic benefits. Overall, a loss in net income was expected under all future scenarios, with those engaged in single livelihoods being the most vulnerable because they were likely to experience the largest losses (7 - 29% loss vs. 1 - 17% for multi-livelihoods) across all 4 scenarios while having the least capacity to adapt. Respondents' choices generated the best economic outcome under the scenario depicting the status quo, indicating that they were capable of coping with current conditions, but were unlikely to make appropriate decisions when faced with future scenarios that they were unfamiliar with. By quantifying the consequences of low adaptive capacity in terms of income loss, this study provides an economic argument for addressing the social and economic factors that currently inhibit the capacity of Tonle Sap inhabitants to adapt to future change. It also emphasises the need for sustainable management of fish and water resources upon which inhabitants are currently heavily dependent upon.