Managed Retreat: A Global Analysis of Drivers, Barriers, and Outcomes

Managed retreat is the strategic relocation of structures or abandonment of land to reduce natural hazard risk. Although managed retreat is a potentially important climate change adaptation option, it has not yet been deployed or studied as extensively as traditional protection or accommodation measures such as levees and beach nourishment. Its application faces numerous social and legal challenges that complicate its integration into a risk-management portfolio. However, a deeper understanding of its potential future use is urgently needed given the projected scope of climate-induced displacement in the coming decades. We evaluate the drivers, barriers, and outcomes of 27 recent cases of managed retreat that have resettled 1.6-2.7 million people. The examples originate in 19 countries, occur in pre- and post-disaster settings, and address flooding, erosion, earthquakes, and tsunamis. A model based on two key factors—who benefits from retreat and who initiates it—organizes the diverse set of cases into four quadrants and provides a structure for deeper analysis of case-specific complexities. Different sociopolitical features, such as the distribution of power, strength of governance, and attachment to place, emerge as particularly influential in each quadrant. The model acts as a point of departure for unpacking these complexities. By integrating these wide-ranging examples, the model enables a broader understanding of the landscape of managed retreat and the underlying social dynamics. It provides insight on how such dimensions can be incorporated into decision-making in a changing climate, advancing consideration and potential implementation of retreat.