Net Ecosystem Production and Actionable Negative Emissions Strategies

Negative emissions strategies, designed to increase the rate at which carbon dioxide (CO2) and other greenhouse gases are removed from the atmosphere, are an important aspect of broader strategies for mitigating climate change. Not only is CO2 the dominant greenhouse gas and the one most intimately tied to existing commercial energy use, but it is also part of the global carbon cycle. On the order of 200 PgC•yr-1 circulates between the atmosphere and the major carbon stocks of the terrestrial biosphere, oceans and geosphere. Anthropogenic flows of roughly 10 PgC•yr-1 from fossil fuel use and 1 PgC•yr-1 from land-use change significantly exceed the Earth's natural carbon sink, and this imbalance causes the buildup of carbon in the atmosphere. In addition to strategies for reducing CO2 emissions, increasing negative emissions through carbon dioxide removal (CDR) is crucial for reducing carbon cycle imbalance in the near term as well as meeting long-term goals such as a 2°C limit. Terrestrial carbon management is important for both reducing emissions and enhancing sinks. Photosynthesis in terrestrial ecosystems is the form of CDR that is now most actionable, referring to mechanisms that can be economically implemented at meaningful scales without technology breakthroughs. Net ecosystem production (NEP) is a crucial metric for guiding CDR involving the terrestrial biosphere, including options such as bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) and other forms of bio-based mitigation. We derive the necessary conditions for effective implementation of this category of negative emissions measures, emphasizing the importance of NEP measurement, baselines and appropriate methods of carbon accounting. We present a method for quantitative spatio-temporal analysis of land-use and land-cover changes for estimating landscape-scale NEP; provide a preliminary baseline NEP estimate for the continental United States; apply the method to reveal a cautionary tale regarding NEP and biofuel production; and discuss the implications for negative emissions research and public policy going forward.