Is the zero emission requirement aligned with 2.0°C and 1.5°C stabilization targets?

The Paris Agreement stipulates that the global warming be stabilized at well below 2°C and eventually 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. While the landmark agreement has led to a wide range of associated analyses, less attention has been paid to another mitigation target in Paris: cut the net greenhouse gas emissions to zero during the second half of this century. This study explores how such an emission target may guide us to achieve the temperature target. We found that, if the emission target is met by 2060, the most likely outcome is that the warming will peak at slightly above 2°C and decline below 1.5°C by the early 22nd century. This corresponds roughly to the temperature target; however, it is important to realize that the warming inevitably exceeds 1.5°C temporarily. On the contrary, if delayed by 2100, the warming reaches as high as 4°C until it starts to fall. Furthermore, net negative CO2 emissions are implicitly required for the emission target, the intensity of which depends on unabatable anthropogenic non-CO2 greenhouse gas emissions as well as the emission metric used to equate greenhouse gas emissions on the basis of CO2.