Partitioning Uncertainty In Aboveground Carbon Density Estimates: Relative Contributions From Lidar and Forest Inventory In The Brazilian Amazon.
Abstract
Carbon accounting for REDD+ requires knowledge of deforestation, degradation, and associated changes in forest carbon stocks. Degradation is more difficult to detect than deforestation so SilvaCarbon, an US inter-agency effort, has set a priority to better characterize forest degradation effects on carbon loss. By combining information from forest inventory and lidar data products, impacts of deforestation, degradation, and associated changes in forest carbon stocks can be more accurately characterized across space. Our approach employs a hierarchical Bayesian modeling (HBM) framework where the assimilation of information from multiple sources is accomplished using a change of support (COS) technique. The COS formulation allows data from multiple spatial resolutions to be assimilated into an intermediate resolution. This approach is being applied in Paragominas, a jurisdiction in the eastern Brazilian Amazon with a high proportion of logged and burned degraded forests where political change has opened the way for REDD+. We build on a long history of research including our extensive studies of logging damage. Our primary objective is to quantify above-ground carbon stocks and corresponding uncertainty in a spatially explicit manner. A secondary objective is to quantify the relative contribution of lower level data products to the overall uncertainty, allowing for more focused subsequent data collection in the context of uncertainty reduction. This approach provides a mechanism to assimilate information from multiple sources to produce spatially-explicit maps of carbon stocks and changes with corresponding spatially explicit maps of uncertainty. Importantly, this approach also provides a mechanism that can be used to assess the value of information from specific data products.
- Publication:
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AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts
- Pub Date:
- December 2016
- Bibcode:
- 2016AGUFMGC21C1112D
- Keywords:
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- 0315 Biosphere/atmosphere interactions;
- ATMOSPHERIC COMPOSITION AND STRUCTUREDE: 0428 Carbon cycling;
- BIOGEOSCIENCESDE: 1631 Land/atmosphere interactions;
- GLOBAL CHANGEDE: 1694 Instruments and techniques;
- GLOBAL CHANGE