The 100th Meridian Climate Divide & Its Present and Future Impact on the Human Geography of the American Great Plains

The 100th meridian has been viewed historically as a symbolic boundary between the more arid western plains in the Midwestern United States, and the more humid eastern half of the country. The purpose of this project is to evaluate the true climatic characteristics of this divide, and to determine its implications for landscape and land use, with a focus on agriculture. An aridity index is first defined as precipitation divided by the potential evapotranspiration, P/PET, where PET is calculated with the Penman-Monteith equation using data from the North American Land Data Assimilation System Phase 2 (NLDAS-2) for the period 1979-2015. The NLDAS-2 is a compilation of observed climate data and output from three land surface models: NOAH, VIC, and MOSAIC. The three models agreed on a clear west-east gradient in aridity, with a boundary dryland boundary at approximately the 100th meridian. The aridity index was then compared to the soil moisture from each model, to determine how it impacts water storage, and the soil moisture was consistent both annually and seasonally. Using USDA data from the 2012 census, the longitudinal distribution of agricultural variables, such as farm size and percent corn of total cropland, were examined. Clear differences were observed in these variables across the aridity boundary, especially in the Northern Plains. We performed regressions between these variables and the aridity index, and found a close relationship between the aridity index and the percent of corn and wheat grown, as well as farm size. To project the potential future changes in agricultural practices due to changes in aridity, we used CMIP5 projections of the aridity index changes over the plains in the period 2040-2060. In tandem with the regression relation, we were able to predict that the percent corn of total cropland may decrease by as much as 20% at all longitudes, and it may not even be feasible to grow east of the 100th meridian. Farm size is expected to increase across the plains. Thus, we began to explore how the farm economy may be impacted by the shifting aridity gradient due to climate change in the coming century.